As cooler October evenings set in, avid skiers’ and snowboarders’ minds become occupied with thoughts of the upcoming ski season .
The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s extended winter weather forecast has long provided a source of optimism for a snowy winter ahead, although there is much debate about its ability to accurately predict weather forecasts and trends months in advance (but if it says it’s going to be a snowy winter, most skiers and snowboarders will take it!).
But the one thing that is agreed on by most forecasters and meteorologists, including those at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the high likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern persisting through this year’s ski season.
In fact, according to a report released on June 8 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, this weather pattern is already underway and expected to strengthen through the ski season. It’s anticipated that by winter, there is an 84% chance of a “greater than moderate” strength El Nino developing and a 56% chance of its being very strong, which has only happened five times since 1950.
What does El Nino actually mean for weather patterns?
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For skiers and riders, El Nino can signify many things, depending on where you’re located. But, from a scientific standpoint, an El Nino weather pattern (as opposed to a La Nina pattern which has persisted through the last three seasons) simply means that surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, near the equator, are warmer than average.
“El Nino means there is slightly to significantly above-normal water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific,” said Brad Field, who was NBC Connecticut’s chief meteorologist for nearly 35 years and co-hosts the New England Skywatch Weather podcast. “And when you have warmer air over an area, it tends to rise.”
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Field went on to explain that this warmer, moisture-rich air rises and contributes not only to an increased amount of precipitation, but a pattern of high-pressure “ridges” and low pressure “troughs” that, along with the southerly-trending jet stream, influence the overall weather pattern for the season.
This weather pattern, which typically occurs every two to seven years, tends to strengthen as winter approaches, having varying impacts on the amount of snow (or rain) different regions receive.
For those of us who are already having dreams of waist-deep powder, here is what the El Nino weather pattern means for ski country across the U.S.
New England’s ski forecast is a mixed bag
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Depending on who you ask and what sources you consult, an El Nino weather pattern can mean two different things on the opposite ends of the spectrum in the northeastern U.S. According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the weather pattern will likely bring a cold and snowy winter to welcoming and optimistic New Englanders, while others anticipate a drier and warmer winter in the region.
But even if the latter is more accurate, that doesn’t mean hope is lost for New England skiers and snowboarders. During the 2009-10 ski season, despite a strong El Nino weather pattern of similar strength to the one currently forecasted, several significant snowfall events hammered the Northeast, starting as early as mid-October.
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“I do think [the total snowfall will] be above normal, and this type of pattern favors a lot of East Coast storms,” Field predicts. “But if it becomes a strong El Nino, like two or three degrees above normal in the tropical Pacific, I have found that mainly we get rainstorms in Southern New England. Although I don’t think that will be the case in northern New England.”
If it does turn out to be a warmer winter in the Northeast, look toward higher-elevation and high-latitude ski areas like Jay Peak in Vermont, Wildcat in New Hampshire or Sugarloaf in Maine for more reliable snow.
Rockies and Utah could see above-average snowfall
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A southern push of the jet stream that’s typically associated with an El Nino weather pattern often means ski areas in the southern Rockies and Utah — Taos, Telluride, Crested Butte and Park City, for example — could experience above-average snowfall. But due to their inland locations, this isn’t a done deal.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s outlook, snowfall totals might be closer to average, which, by U.S. standards, isn’t all that bad. As you head towards resorts farther north in Utah and the Rockies, the odds of above-average snowfall decrease, so resorts like Montana’s Big Sky and Wyoming’s Jackson Hole might not be the best option for the winter — although both have spectacular terrain and get a lot of snow even during an average year, so they shouldn’t be written off, either.
But if does end up being anything like last season, you might want to start planning for a ski trip to Utah now. Of course, with the uncertainty as to who and where will be hit the hardest, purchasing a multi-mountain pass like the Epic, Ikon, Indy or Mountain Collective will allow quite a bit of flexibility, so you can chase storms as they come.
Related: What’s the best ski pass this season? Comparing Epic, Ikon, Mountain Collective and Indy passes
California might be the place to go for the deepest days this winter
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Last winter, ski areas in California shattered snowfall records throughout the state. And while these records might be hard to beat, the state is the most likely to be affected by heavy and abundant snowfall due to El Nino.
Like Colorado, Utah and the rest of the U.S., odds of higher precipitation increase as you head south, so resorts like Mammoth and even the Tahoe-area resorts like Palisades and North Star are likely to be impacted by the most significant snowfall.
Pacific Northwest isn’t consistently impacted by El Nino
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Similar to New England, El Nino’s effect on the Pacific Northwest can go either way. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a snowy winter for the Pacific Northwest, but depending on how far south the jet stream tracks, warmer weather can bring the opposite effect.
NOAA’s three-month outlook shows quite the opposite forecast from the Old Farmer’s Almanac, anticipating above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.
During the 2015-16 ski season, an El Nino weather pattern brought above-average snowfall to the Pacific Northwest, so if history is any indicator, it’s worth keeping your eyes on.
Higher-elevation resorts, like Mount Hood Meadows, Mount Hood Timberline (which is higher than Meadows, but has less terrain) or Bachelor are less likely to be impacted negatively by warm weather, receiving snow while surrounding low-elevation areas get rain.
Ski areas to open early
An El Nino weather pattern doesn’t necessarily impact opening dates of most ski resorts, since the majority depend on snowmaking to get the lifts spinning rather than natural snowfall. With that being said, ski areas in southern California and into the southern Rockies may get natural terrain opened quicker as winter progresses, thanks to the strong El Nino.
To get your first turns of the season, look towards the usual culprits — Killington and Wildcat in the Northeast, Mammoth and Timberline in the west and Solitude and Arapahoe Basin (who already fired up their snowmaking system) in Utah and Colorado, respectively.
The ski news website, On The Snow, just published their list of tentative opening dates for North American ski resorts, although these often get pushed back if weather doesn’t cooperate.
Bottom line
As difficult as it is to get short-term weather forecasts correct, long-term forecasts are even more difficult. An El Nino weather pattern typically brings cooler temperatures and above-average snowfall to ski areas in the southern part of the U.S., like Mammoth and Telluride, but can impact the rest of the country for the better or worse.
For this ski season, keep your eyes on the southern Rockies and southern California, but if you have the flexibility to wait until the last minute before booking a trip, that’s the most reliable way to ensure deep days ahead.
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